Unpredictability is the very factor in politics all administrations and authorities try to avoid. It is same in Armenian reality as well, the current administration will do whatever it takes to ‘neutralize’ unpredictable individuals, groups and political forces. Unfortunately, we must record that Armenian opposition has taken up the kind of disposition, which fits the expectations of the authorities.
From this point, the movement of 2008 was entirely impalpable and unpredictable for Armenian authorities, and at last the administration turned to crime and repressive measures, realising March 1 slaughter and the subsequent political trials. After twists of 2008, we must record that, inner political life became predictable and under control. Parallel to this, political propaganda, including the mass media began to push forward the thesis of consumption and oppositional split, which sometimes matches the reality.
Nevertheless, remembering Bismark, we can state that politics is art of the possible. Political situation, ideas, battle measures and ways can change and be made slowly, maybe slight; however, politics can never be stoned. Recent activities of Armenian reality came to prove that despite high level of stagnation, some events take place that are somewhere beyond the limits of political model.
Firstly, the continuous process of civil society development, despite the fact that it includes groups of different sexes, up to agents, is unpredictable for the administration. We witnessed this on December 2nd, when over 100 activists were detained. This was the sign of suddenness, as when our authorities face unexpectedness the only way out of the situation is physical violation.
The same scene took place on November 5. Shant Harutyunyan’s actions were also out of authorities’ prediction, so the police agents organized provocation based on Harutyunyan’s verbal abuses, and arrested him.
No matter how odd it may seem, but Nikol Pashinya’s initiative of making a “Civil Contract’ was also unpredictable for the authorities. In the beginning this initiative may be a headache for them and even a political opponent. Nevertheless, the high level, the agenda and the biographies of individuals making the “Civil contract” do not give a chance of provocations.
Avoiding any prediction, we can confirm that events of November 5, the “Civil contract” and the ongoing creation of civil society are signs of birth of new realities.
By: Aghasi Margaryan
